CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-13T09:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-13T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30814/-1
CME Note: Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades seen at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a small but distinct shock: Bt increasing from around 4nT->7.5nT, with a minimal but noticeable bump in temperature, density, and speed. It is possibly the arrival of the shock front of this CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-15T18:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-15T11:30Z
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/13 09:25Z Plane of Sky 1: 12:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 18:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction POS Difference: 6:10 POS Midpoint: 15:15Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:50 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.59 Travel Time: ~8.59 * 5:50 = 50:05 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-15 11:30ZLead Time: 16.88 hour(s)
Difference: 6.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-05-15T01:20Z
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